Next Week's Mess

The Alberta Clipper is moving in right on schedule. Snow will being falling this afternoon and should continue right through tonight. By the time you wake up on Saturday morning 5-10 cm will likely have fallen in your backyard.

NEXT WEEK
... Looks messy. Lets not beat around the bush here.
A system rolling onto the Coast of B.C. today will really set the stage for our weather through a good portion of next week.

The system will split into 2.
One piece of energy will race across the Rockies and become a Clipper type system, which will be bringing Rain into the region on Monday. However, before the rain arrives, there is a chance we could be seeing a period of FREEZING RAIN as the warm front works in on Monday morning as well.

Image Courtesy: www.wunderground.com
Monday we change over to showers... with a change over to a few flurries for Tuesday.

The other piece of energy will drop Southeast and BLOW UP into, what looks to be a big time system for next Wednesday. Take a look at the latest run of the GFS model.

Video courtesy: http://www.noaa.gov/

Right now, this storm is a very close call between a Heavy Rain fall or a Very Heavy Snowfall. One thing should be mentioned before we jump to conclusions here. A week ago, I was sitting here writing to you about a potential of a big time storm for this past Tuesday... which as we all know didn't pan out at all. So although the models can look like a sure thing... they are far from it. I just wanted put the word out.. that as of right now... Wednesday looks MESSY.

As always... I'll keep you posted.
Ryan.

Clipper Moves In Tomorrow

WOWZERS THAT'S COLD!
The good news is... the very chilly airmass overhead won't be hanging around too much longer.
An Alberta Clipper racing across the praries today... is dropping about 5-10 cm of snow as it pushes Southeast with it's sights set on Southern Ontario.
As the system draws up warmer air from the South and runs into this cold air mass... it's expected to produce about 5-10 cm here in Central Ontario as well, from Friday morning-Saturday afternoon.

The areas shaded in purple... through the hills of Haliburton and Bancroft have the best chance of seeing totals near 10 cm. Not a huge shot... but likely enough to break out the shovels.
As I've been mentioning the weekend is expected to be significantly warmer than the temperatures we are feeling now.

However, those warmer temperatures will set the stage for a very MESSY MIXED PRECIP type week, for our first week of March. Rain, Snow and everything in between.
I'll have details on that... tomorrow.

Warmth In Sight... But...

Hey folks,

The Bad News

It's COLD outside... and it's going to get COLDER over the next 24 hours or so.

Forecast Lows for tonight

Peterborough-25

Bancroft-26

Haliburton-26

Northumberland-20

Oshawa-23

WINDCHILLS WILL FEEL INTO THE -30's!!!

The Good News.

Warmer temperatures are on the way... as move into Friday I'm watching an Alberta Clipper which looks like a solid 3-8 cm shot of snow. However that system which actually warm our temperatures up as we move into the weekend. Saturday -2 Sunday -1 or zero.

The Good and Bad News

Another clipper will form on the weekend and jet across the praries. Ahead of that storm... much warmer temperatures... Monday we might hit 5 degrees with rain expected across most of the province.

Ryan.

Where's The Snow??

First of all, it's hard to believe that 1 year ago today I took the wheel here at the Weather desk... feels like just yesterday really. I just wanted to say a big thank-you to everyone who watches the show and checks out the blog, for making me feel so welcome. I had some big shoes to fill and you've all been so patient and kind. Thanks.

Alright on to the weather situation... as of noon... we've had just a trace of snow across the region.

The bulk of the snow is falling south of the border... but we aren't out of the blue just yet.

The system, as it works Northeast will continue to drop flurries on us throughout the afternoon.

Our totals will no doubt be less than first thought... however I believe a couple of cms is still likely by 10 or 11pm tonight.

A look ahead.

-Friday's Alberta clipper system still looks like a good 5 cm shot.

-The Sunday clipper is looking more and more like a Snow to Rain storm.

I'll keep you up to date.

Ryan.

Fasten Your Seatbelts!!!

If you are a fan of snow and winter... you're going to LOVE me.

If you just can't wait for winte to be over... you're done with the snow... and can't take any more.

Brace yourself.

The next week is going to be nothing short of Crazy.

We are headed into a Wild Weather Pattern...with a potential for 3 storms in 7 days.

1) Colorado Low- Tonight and Tuesday... snowfall potential 15 cms... especially if you live south of Rice Lake and Highway 7.

2) Alberta Clipper 1.- This system rolls in Friday... with snow into Friday night and Saturday.... snowfall potential 10 cm.

3) Clipper # 2.- Sunday and into Monday...another clipper but not as strong. However, still the potential for another 5-10 cm of snow.
How much do you hate me now????

Let's take this one at time... first up the Colorado Low... All the Details tonight @ 6.

Ryan.

Quick Sunday Update

Hey sorry for the late post... it's been a crazy weekend!
Alright here's a quick update on the Tuesday Storm.

-The low pressure centre will develop over Colorado tonight or tomorrow morning and track to the northeast as it intensifies Monday and Tuesday.
-System looks like it will indeed track to THE SOUTH of the Great Lakes...definetly bringing us Snow... not rain.
-Heaviest amounts will be along the 401... where 20 cm is definetly possible.
-Lesser amounts the further North you go.
-Assuming the storm track holds... I would put most of the Ptbo region in the 8-15 cm catagory.

I'll have full storm details tomorrow... here on the blog and on Newswatch @ 6 & 11pm.

Latest On The Tuesday Storm

The potential for a Snow Storm on Tuesday is looking more and more likely.

As you can see, the system is way out in the Pacific Ocean right now... but will roll onto the West Coast of the U.S. this weekend.

This is a video of the 12z GFS model, which shows the system rolling onto the U.S. West coast this weekend... coming out of the Rockies and tracking right through the Great Lakes. This particular model run shows a very heavy band of snow cutting right through Central Ontario.

The GFS has been bringing the system into the Great Lakes and Central Ontario consistantly for a 3 or 4 days now.

However, here's a look at the GEM (Canadian Model) from today which indicates the storm comes through the Lakes to the East of us. If this came true, we would less 5 cm.

Here's the American DGEX model... which agrees with the GFS and brings in Heavy Snow.

So basically, this storm will likely roll into Central Ontario... but isn't a guarantee. However, if it does come through, it certainly has the potential to be a big one.

I'll keep you posted.
Ryan.

P.S. I won't be around a computer at all on Saturday... but hopefully I can give you a bit of an update on Sunday. Have a fanastic weekend!

Potential 26th-27th Storm

Alright folks, with Friday pretty much figured out, (mainly cloudy... a few flurries in the morning... but less than 3cm) it's time to talk about this system next week.

Looks like a classic Colorado Low is shaping up for Tuesday and into Wednesday.

System rolls on to the U.S. West coast on Sunday... hops the mountains and comes raceing out of Colorado on Monday.

The storm taps into some nice warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico...while it streaks across the U.S. Plains... and blows up into a pretty good looking snow maker.

The models have been fairly consistant with bringing the system right through the Great Lakes and putting us on the Cold, Snow side of the storm... although it still has the potential to be a Snow/Freezing rain/Rain system for us as well.

Here's a look at the 6z GFS from this morning. If the storm came through just as this model is predicting, we would see at least 15 cm of snow.

That being said... some of the other model runs have shown as little as 5 cm... and others more than 20.
So just keep in mind... this storm is on the way.

With that being said, we have a FANTASTIC looking weekend on the way.
Details tonight @ 6 and 11.

Ryan.

Friday???

Alright let's talk about Friday for a minute....

All week I've been trying to figure out whether a storm coming out of Texas will be moving here into Southern Ontario. The models have not been a help at all, flip flopping with no consistency whatsoever.
After the last 2 days of back and fourth play on the models... I thought today I would start to see some sort of trend... I was wrong.

Todays NAM model.
Run 1-Brings the system in... at least 10 cm... perhaps 15cm!
Run 2-Brings the system in... just barely... 5 cm at the most.
Run 3- Brings the system in...5-10 cm.

Todays GFS model.
Run 1-Brings the system in... 5cm
Run 2- System goes to the south. No snow.
Run 3-System goes to the south. No snow.

Canadian Models continue to bring the system every run as well. So it's a very tough call on the forecast... especially because it's a Friday and many folks may be thinking about travel plans for Friday night-Saturday morning.

The problem with the storm... is that there are actually two storms...one coming from the Canadian Praries and the other coming up from Texas. The two systems will branch together and the models can't seem to figure out which one will dominate once the two come together. If the Northern system dominates we won't see any snow at all. If the Southern system takes over... we will see snow on Friday and into Saturday.

So for now, I'm going to stick with my forecast of a Mainly Cloudy day Friday...
However, just be informed that this could change.

Ryan.

P.S. No matter what happens with the Friday system... it's looking more and more promising for a potential Big Storm for Mid-next week.

30 More Days.

I don't think anybody living here in Southern Ontario will argue... it has been one heck of a Winter! Really we've been going non-stop since our first snowfall in late November.
Since then we've seen close to 200 cm's of snow, Freezing rain, soaking rains, record breaking warmth, and extreme fog all in the course of 12 weeks. Oh Canada!
Pretty much every week in December, January and into February, I've been tracking 1 or 2 storms getting ready to move into the Great Lakes with some sort of nasty precip... that is until this week.
The weather map is strangely quiet right now.

There's some lake effect flurries to deal with over the next couple days... and perhaps a potential 5-10 cm shot coming late this week... but that's about it.
However, this mini storm break has also given me the chance to realize something else. Something spectacular!

Only 30 more days until March 20th, the arrival of spring!

That's right the count down is on...
30 more days to Spring.
95 days until the May 24th Long weekend if you really want to look ahead.

However with that said, 30 days is still a month... and we've all seen snow in late March and into early April. In fact, as I look into my little crystal ball... it looks like Winter will indeed be holding on for dear life. There's NOT one day over the next 15 days, which looks like the temperature could rise above 5 degrees!
And although there are no storms in the forecast for this week... what's that for next Tuesday or Wednesday?

Yes, a potential Big Time Snow Storm for Next Tuesday the 26th-Wednesday the 27th.
This storm definetly isn't a guarantee, as the models have been flip flopping a bit on the track. However, I am watching this storm very closely... and as always... I'll keep you up to date.

30 DAYS!

Ryan.

Happy Family Day

3 Main points for today.

-Temperatures will be falling throughout the day as winds shift in from the Northwest, dropping the mercury all the way down to -14 tonight. Flurries tonight and tomorrow morning from a passing trough over the Lakes.

-Not a bad week shaping up. Cooler temperatures, however no systems really passing through at all. However, Lake effect flurries will be coming off of Georgian Bay tomorrow and even into Wednesday and Thursday.

- YES I AM AT WORK TODAY... SO MAKE SURE YOU AND YOUR FAMILY TUNE INTO NEWSWATCH TONIGHT @ 6 AND 11.

Have a Happy Family Day!

Ryan

Texas Storm Update

As I mentioned earlier... looks like the track of the storm... will indeed take the system to the Northwest of the viewing area... putting us in the warm sector and therefore we will see mostly rain from this system. Perhaps as much as 25 mm by Monday morning and that could cause some localized flooding...SO MAKE SURE THOSE STORM DRAINS ARE CLEARED!

Here's at look at my Future Look model for Sunday and Monday.

By late Sunday morning we should be starting to see wet flurries mixing in with ice pellets and freezing rain as the warm front moves into the region. Rain will take over during the afternoon and into the overnight... again 20-30 mm are possible. We will finally change back over to Snow on Monday morning. Temperatures on Monday will fall through out the day... as winds will be driving in from the Northwest. So Lake Effect snows will be a factor Monday afternoon-Tuesday morning.

Here's a video of the Future Look Freezing Rain model. This model seems to have the Northwestern part of the viewing area as the main freezing rain zone.

The NAM model brings wide spread freezing rain in across the entire viewing area around mid-day Sunday.

How much Freezing Rain we see... where we see it... and how long it lasts really depends on how long those colder temperatures hold at the surface. Warm air will be flowing in from the South but it will take some time for the air to sink down to the ground level and flush that cold air out... until it does... we will be seeing ice pellets and the freezing rain.

However, for now it looks like between 11am-2pm Sunday will be our best chance of freezing rain... especially in Northern parts of the City of Kawartha Lakes, Peterborough County, all of Haliburton County and Northern Hastings County before we switch over to rain.

Ryan.

Quick Storm Update

Storm still tracking Northwest of the viewing area... bringing us mostly rain... HOWEVER... models are showing the cold air holding on a little longer on Sunday afternoon.
As a result, looks like there's a better chance of seeing freezing rain... for a longer period of time Sunday afternoon.

Today's a busy one... so I'll have a fun rundown posted by 4pm.

WINTER STORM WATCH!

It appears... this storm will have it all folks.
Snow
Freezing Rain
Rain
More Snow.

Although, it looks like this will... for the most part... be a rain storm for most of the viewing area.
Why?
A couple of reasons. First of all the storm track. With the storm tracking so far to the Northwest we will be well into the warm sector, all that warm southerly air will be quickly moving in and changing us over from snow to rain in a hurry.
The lack of cold air around Sunday morning may also keep our chances of significant freezing rain down as well... which would be a bonus.

Again, we are more than 36 hours away... so a lot can happen... and SO MUCH depends on the track of this storm as well... which has definetly not been cast in stone.

A track difference of 500 km would mean a different type of precip... and a different forecast.

As of now, the track furthest North is the most likely.

Full details tonight at 6 and I'll be updating the blog throughout the weekend as well... SO STAY TUNED!

West of the Appalachians it is!

First of all... I have to say... I'm shocked by your answers on the poll!
There are more storm lovers out there than I thought.

Alright the Sunday-Monday system indeed looks like it's going to come up out of the Gulf of Mexico and cut right through the Great Lakes.
The question 24 hours ago was, will it track west or east of the Appalachians? The question today is how far west will it track?
That question is extremely important and here's why...

1. If the storm centre tracks to the west of the viewing area... we would be in the warm sector of the storm. If that's the case we would see snow, then freezing rain, a period of rain, before a change over back to snow and a dramatic cool down.

2. If the storm centre tracks to the East of the viewing area... we would would likely stay on the cold side of the system and would be looking at just snow. However it would be a moderate to heavy snowfall for the entire viewing area.

What do the models say now?
According to the last 3 runs of the GFS model,(below) the centre of the low would come up to the well to the West of us... placing us into the warm sector... where we see a messy mix of everything.

The DGEX model also brings the centre of the low to the West, however not as far to West. If this model is right we would be seeing a longer period of Heavy snow, before a brief period of rain and then back to snow.

A difference of 100 km's could make a HUGE difference with this storm... so we likely won't know all the details until Saturday. However just know, we have a Big Winter Storm coming for Sunday night into Monday.

Ryan.

The Sunday Night-Monday Storm?

Hey folks,

I've been keeping a really close eye on the models over the last few days... trying to figure out where a potential storm for Sunday night and into Monday will be tracking.
The models have really been flip flopping on the track of this storm... and the track will everything. The system will be brewing in Gulf of Mexico on Friday and Saturday and then will be heading Northeast.
The Appalachian Mountains are basically the line in the sand.
If the storm tracks to the West of the Mountains... which is what the GFS model seems to think... we would be seeing another good storm with some decent snowfall totals.

If the Storm tracks to the West of the Mountains and up the Eastern Seaboard of the U.S. we wouldn't see a big storm at all. Most of the system would track to the East of Great Lakes and we would just see a few flurries from an approaching Cold front from the West. The DGEX model below seems to be going with that solution.

Movie images courtesy: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/

Two different models and two very different solutions.
-If the GFS model is right we could potentially see 15-20 cm of snow!
-If the DGEX is right we would only see 5 cm.

I know which one most of you are hoping for...
I'll keep you up to date.

P.S. Here are some snowfall totals from last night's storm courtesy of Environment Canada.
==weather event discussion==
Most regions received amounts of 8 to 13 cm.
Areas close to Lake Ontario and the St.Lawrence valley collected 15 to 20 cm.
The highest Amounts were recorded in the Cornwall area with 22 cm.
-------------------------------------------------------------
Location snowfall amounts (cm)
Hamilton 6 cm
Caledon 12 cm
Sutton 12 cm
Brampton 13 cm
Markam and Richmond Hill 7 to 12 cm
Toronto Buttonville airport 7 cm
City of Toronto 10 to 20 cm
Toronto Pearson airport 14 cm
Toronto Downsview 15 cm
Niagara area 5 to 10 cm
Trenton 10 cm
Ottawa 10 cm
Embrum 15 cm
Rockland 15 cm
Alexandria 10 cm
Kitchener 10 cm
Watertown 18 cm
Orillia 8 cm
Cornwall 22 cm

From what I can tell Peterborough recived about 10-12 cm last night.

Ryan.

Afternoon Update

The system is dragging it's heels a bit in the U.S. and will be arriving a little later than expected.

Here in the City of Peterborough, expect the snow to start falling around dinner time this evening... with the consistant snowfall from 10pm-3am.
We also have a slight chance of seeing some isolated Freezing Rain along the shores of Lake Ontario overnight... so it could be a messy drive to work tomorrow morning.
In terms of how much snow is on the way....I still like my snowfall prediction map from yesterday. I'll see you tonight @ 6.

Ryan

Snowfall Time Line

Hey folks,

Our latest system is getting set to roll in through the day tomorrow... here's a time line.

4pm-6pm- Flurries begin

6pm-9pm- Heavier snow bands work in.

9pm-3am- Steady snowfall- 10cm possible

3am-6am- Snow changes over to flurries.

Again, here's how much snow we could see.I'll update you on the system tomorrow, here on the blog and of course on Newswatch @ 6 and 11pm.

FUTURE SNOWFALL?
We have another Alberta Clipper on the way for Friday... which looks like will indeed bring about 5 cm of snow for Friday and another cold shot in for next weekend.
I'm also keeping a close eye on a system that has been showing up on the computer models for a few days now. It comes out of the South on the weekend and would bring a significant amount of snowfall for Sunday and into Monday. I'm watching this one very very closely... this could be a big impact storm.

Ryan.

Lake Effect Band

*Snowsquall Warnings, Blowing Snow Warnings and Windchill Warnings For Some In The Viewing Area*

The Lake Effect band I was talking about this afternoon has started to shift Southwest bringing snowfall rates of up to 5-10 cm per hour in some places. This band will continue to slide Southwest as the winds become Northerly through the overnight. The good news is the band should start to weaken.
However, anyone waking up early tomorrow morning in the line of fire should be prepared to dust off the car and drive on some slick roads.

Drive safe.
Ryan

The Arctic Front Arrives

BLOWING SNOW WARNING FOR

Peterborough County
City of Kawartha Lakes
Haliburton County
York and Durham Region

The Cold front we've been talking about for 3 or 4 days now, has finally arrived. Temperatures since midnight have dropped 10 degrees.

Peterborough Airport.

TIME-TEMPERATURE/ WINDCHILL

Midnight- 0/-6

2:00am -1/-7

5:00am -2/ -6

8:00am -3 / -11

10:00am -7 / -15

1:00pm -10/ -20

The winds have really been gusting in from the West... and like we talked about on Friday... some Lake Effect bands have been setting up as a result.

Image Courtesy: http://weather.cod.edu/

Image Courtesy http://www.weather.ec.gc.ca/

As you can see, there is one really strong Lake Effect Band coming from Georgian Bay, which is bringing snow through Bracebridge then down through the Minden, Miners Bay, Moore Falls and Norland Area. That band continues east through the Kinmount area and all the way to the Apsley area. That band is bringing nasty white out conditions and heavy snow at times.

The top wind speed in Peterborough has been 65 km/h, which is why the windchill feels -20.
Blowing Snow and Lake effect flurries will continue to be an issue into the overnight hours with winds at times 20-25 km/h... even into tomorrow morning. So, all that fresh new snow will continue to drift and blow.

Tomorrow's temperature will struggle to hit -10 and it's going to FEEL much colder than that!

Ryan.

A Quick Peek @ The Week Ahead

Alrighty folks,

I just thought I would give you a heads up at some of things I'm watching for the week ahead.

Nothing has really changed in terms of this weekend... flurries today, tonight and into tomorrow.
Generally 5-10 cm across the viewing area... more to the Northwest where you get into Lake Effect Country. You know who you are! Lake effect flurries will be an issue from Sunday afternoon-Monday afternoon.

Sunday, Monday- COLD!!!!!!!! I can't sum it up any better than that. This is a Frigid airmass heading into our area. Winds will be gusting from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning with Windchills in the -20's.

Tuesday- Snow
Image Courtesy: http://www.wunderground.com/

This system is just rolling on to the coast of B.C. as I type this... so it's still developing and a lot can change ... however, right now this looks like another 5-10 cm shot.

Wednesday- Clearing out and warming up a little bit... at least to temperatures closer to seasonal.

Thusday-Friday- I'm hesistant to mention this, but the models have been hinting at ANOTHER Very Cold shot coming in later on this week or early in the weekend. The models aren't consistant enough to call this a sure thing, however I thought I would let you know I'm watching this closely.

Hope you have a FANTASTIC weekend!
Ryan.

Getting Ready For THE COLD!

Enjoy the temperatures tomorrow folks... because Old Man Winter is coming!

An Alberta clipper brewing in the Praries today will bring snowfall on Saturday and into Sunday... and then the C C CC COLD!

Here's how much Snow I'm expecting across the viewing area. Basically 3-8 cm across the entire viewing area. You folks who live in the areas shaded in grey and purple have the best chance of seeing Lake Effect snows on Sunday, which is why I've put your totals about 5-10 more than the rest of the region.

THE SUNDAY CHILL DOWN
As I mentioned in the forecast tonight temperatures will really plummet through the day on Sunday. Winds will be brisk out of the Northwest, so temperatures by 6pm should be -12 but with winds around 40-60 km/h, the windchills will feel well into the -20's.
Monday morning will be Frigid across the region. Winds will taper off throughout the day but will still be 30 or 40 km/h in the morning, so again windchills will be below -20.
BUNDLE UP!

The Cold air will hold until at least Wednesday, when temperatures should start to recover back to where they should be this time of year.

Ryan.

How Much Snow Fell at Your House?

Alright folks,

The storm is done with us... and actually today should be a pretty nice day with a few sunny breaks. In fact, perfect weather for shoveling!

Environment Canada has released some numbers for this Storm....
As of 9 A.M. Thursday
Storm total for snow amounts from Tuesday night to Thursday morning

Location total snowfall amounts (cm)

Toronto downtown 25-30 cm snow plus some ice pellets
Toronto Pearson airport 33 cm
Toronto Buttonville airport 30 cm
Toronto ec weather office 32 cm
Richmond Hill 30 cm
Aurora 32 cm
Mississauga 40-50 cm
Milton 50 cm
Guelph 31 cm
Peterborough 27 cm snow and ice pellets
Barrie 30-35 cm
Orillia 40 cm
Balaclava (ne of Owen Sound) 31 cm
Sutton 35 cm
Shanty Bay (ne of Barrie) 34 cm
Trenton 16 cm snow plus some ice pellets
Campbellford 34 cm
Kitchener 26 cm snow plus some ice pellets

So how much Snow fell at your house??
Just post a comment below, let me know where you are from and how much snow fell in your backyard.

Thanks Ryan.

11pm Update

Snow, Snow and More Snow.
10-15 cm 's already on the ground here in the City... and the system isn't done with us yet.

Here's my updated snowfall map.

Make sure to tune in tonight @ 11 for the latest....

Wednesday Storm Update

Round 1 is done with us... get ready... here comes round 2.

The centre of the Low will track Northeast over the next 12 hours bringing with it... an additional 10 to possibly 15 cm of snow.
Here in the City of Peterborough we have about 5 cm on the ground. South of the City, based on the radars, areas like Cobourg, Port Hope and Brighton should have a little more than that.
According to Environement Canada, West Missisauga has reportedly already seen 15-20cm.

South of the border, the Cold front has been extremely deadly. At least 47 people are dead following last night's tornado outbreak. NOAA is reporting at least 67 Tornados touched the ground last night. Extremly rare for February.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23006771/?GT1=10856

Closer to home, again it's more snow on the way... this evening and overnight roads will be snowy again.

Ryan.

Winter Storm Warning

Winter Storm Warning For...
Peterborough County
City of Kawartha Lakes
York Durham,
Northumberland and Quinte in our viewing area.
SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, ICE PELLETS, MORE SNOW.

It's going to be an extremely messy drive to work and drive home. So much to cover, don't miss Newswatch tonight @ 6 and 11pm. If you can't catch it, watch my weather forecast online here. (Tonight's forecast should be uploaded by 7:30pm.)

Looking ahead.
A system rolling in with Snow for the weekend is going to bring a BIG TIME COLD SHOT.
The Cold is forecast to arrive Saturday night with lows close to -20.
Sunday looks like we'll struggle to hit -10 for a high.
Sunday night in through Monday morning would be the coldest shot with the computer model below forecasting an overnight low of -21 F or -30C just to the North of the viewing area.
NOW THAT'S COLD!
Image Courtesy: http://weather.cod.edu/

Ryan.

Here We Go Again....

Winter Storm Watch In Effect for Tonight and Tomorrow.

Peterborough County
City of Kawartha Lakes
York/Durham
Northumberland County


All of these areas in the viewing area could see Snow, Freezing Rain, Sleet, Rain and then more Snow. Haliburton, Bancroft and other areas to the North will likely see just snow but could see anywhere from 5-15 cm.

System rolls in tonight with the Warm front once again, coming in around Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. This is going to be a very close to call. If the Warm rides North of those lakes, we'll be seeing Snow and then Freezing Rain, Sleet and then back to Snow.
If the warm front stays to the South of those lakes, we will likely see just Snow.


So where will the Warm front track? Well, the NAM (North American Model) keeps the front to the South.

However, the GFS (Global Forecasting Model) brings the front as far North as Highway 7.

Needless to say, it's going to be a close one.
Hopefully the models come into some agreement...I'm going to keep you updated through out the day.

Ryan

A Stormy Start to the Week.

Freezing Rain Risk This Evening/Overnight.

This is the future look models interpretation of how things will progress tonight.
Peterborough's best chance of seeing Freezing Rain should be between 9pm-Midnight.
It's areas to the North and East of the City like Haliburton and Bancroft which have the best chance of seeing Freezing Rain, likely between 10pm and 2am.
More details on that situation tonight on Newswatch @ 6.

What's Next?
First system heads east and leaves perhaps record breaking temperatures in it's wake on Tuesday. The record is 6.5 set back in 1991.

The next system rolls in on Wednesday. We could see another good shot of snow based on some of the forecast models. Some are showing this system dropping another 8 to 15 cm (3 to 6 inches) across Southern Ontario. So I'm watching that system carefully.

Needless to say it's going to be a busy 3 day.
Stay tuned.
Ryan

Quick Peek @ The Week...

Looks like this week is going to be kicking off right where last week left off... Stormy.

Monday-Mainly cloudy, as a Warm front slides in as we move into the evening hours. Precip starts as Snow, but looks like we will be transitioning over to a period of Freezing Rain, before we change over to Rain Tuesday morning. So, the drive to work could be slick Tuesday.

Tuesday-You'll need the umbrella. Showers throughout the day and even into Tuesday night. A high of maybe 8 degrees! My record book is at the station, so I'm not sure off hand if we'll be close to a record breaker or not, but my guess would be yes.

Wednesday- The Cold front comes through and changes those showers back over to flurries around mid-day. Temperatures will fall throughout the day. VERY WINDY!!!!

Thursday- Clearing, should see the sunshine but Cooler.

Enjoy your Sunday.
Ryan

STORM SNOWFALL TOTALS

Hey everyone,

I hope that everybody had a fun time shoveling out!

Environment Canada has released it's Final Storm report, with a few snowfall totals from around Southern Ontario. Peterborough isn't included in the report, but based on the towns and cities close to us and based on my measurements, I think we came in somewhere around 20cm.

Here's the report from EC.
Weather summary for all of southern Ontario and The national Capital region Issued by Environment Canada Toronto at 10:29 AM EST Saturday 2 February 2008.

The following is a preliminary summary of some snowfall amounts as Of 10:00 AM.
-------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall reports as of 7:00 AM
Location snowfall amounts (centimetres)
Windsor- 10
Kitchener- 19
Cambridge- 19
Thorold- 8 cm snow 2 mm freezing rain
Grimsby- 21 cm snow/ice pellets
Toronto Pearson- 16
Buttonville airport- 17
Toronto- (beaches) 18
Toronto- (riverdale) 20
Toronto- (annex) 20
Brampton- 18
Paris- 22
Caledon- 22
South Whitby- 28
Barrie- 21
Orillia- close to 20 cm
Trenton- 23
Kingston- 25
Cornwall- 25 cm snow plus 15 cm ice pellets
Ottawa airport- 32
Gatineau- 34

Please note that this summary contains the observations at the time of broadcast and does not constitute an official and final report of the weather events or the high impact events attributed to the weather events.
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Enjoy the weekend!
Ryan

11:30am Update

Snow has started to ease up here in the city.... FOR NOW!

We already have about 6-8cm on the ground (2 or 3 inches) here at the station on Monaghan Rd.

We are going to be seeing a few light flurries over the next hour or so before the centre of the Low begins to track into Southern Ontario this afternoon.

You can see on the Radar below, that Heavy snow line (RED) moved through this morning, but has started to work off to the east. However, there is more heavy precip to the Southwest with the centre of Low which will work in... as the storm works Northeast this afternoon... bringing with it more Heavy Snow mixing in with a few ice pellets... especially south of Rice Lake.

Ryan

IT HAS BEGUN

Hey folks,

Quick morning update for you.

The low is tracking in right on schedule and right on course.

As of 9am this morning, the snow has started falling all across Southern Ontario.

Image Courtesy Of: www.wsi.com www.intellicast.com

Buffalo, Niagara Falls and St. Catherines are all reporting freezing rain and ice pellets. That pink freezing rain line is the warm front of the system which will be working its way North over the next few hours. There is a chance it could reach as far North as Rice Lake, however I think the best chance of seeing the Freezing Rain or Sleet is right along the 401. In fact there are Freezing Rain Warnings in South Western Ontario this morning.

The Low will work North and East today, so it's going to be snowing ALL DAY TODAY!

Snow Heavy at times and blowing snow will be a factor this afternoon.

I think my snowfall map from last night is still going to hold up. I'll try and give you a few updates through out the day.

Ryan