West of the Appalachians it is!

First of all... I have to say... I'm shocked by your answers on the poll!
There are more storm lovers out there than I thought.

Alright the Sunday-Monday system indeed looks like it's going to come up out of the Gulf of Mexico and cut right through the Great Lakes.
The question 24 hours ago was, will it track west or east of the Appalachians? The question today is how far west will it track?
That question is extremely important and here's why...

1. If the storm centre tracks to the west of the viewing area... we would be in the warm sector of the storm. If that's the case we would see snow, then freezing rain, a period of rain, before a change over back to snow and a dramatic cool down.

2. If the storm centre tracks to the East of the viewing area... we would would likely stay on the cold side of the system and would be looking at just snow. However it would be a moderate to heavy snowfall for the entire viewing area.

What do the models say now?
According to the last 3 runs of the GFS model,(below) the centre of the low would come up to the well to the West of us... placing us into the warm sector... where we see a messy mix of everything.

The DGEX model also brings the centre of the low to the West, however not as far to West. If this model is right we would be seeing a longer period of Heavy snow, before a brief period of rain and then back to snow.

A difference of 100 km's could make a HUGE difference with this storm... so we likely won't know all the details until Saturday. However just know, we have a Big Winter Storm coming for Sunday night into Monday.

Ryan.