New Years Clipper Brings Snow and COLD!

The storm moving into Southern Ontario tonight is messy. Snow, Freezing Drizzle, Rain.
So do be careful on the roads.
However, tomorrow morning and through out the day shouldn't be too bad at all if you're going to be doing some travelling.
Sunday is looking pretty good as well... but then I'm watching a new storm for New Years Eve and into New Years Day.
This system will be an Alberta Clipper and will be bringing us all snow... none of this mixing freezing rain buisness. Good news for New Years Eve travel.

If you remember an Alberta Clipper is a fast moving system from Western Canada, which is best known for bringing a quick shot of snow.... BUT BETTER KNOWN for dropping temperatures.
(You can watch my Weather Front feature on Alberta Clippers here.)
And this storm won't dissapoint...
Next Wednesday January 2nd my forecast high is -5 or -6
Next Thursday January 3rd I think we'll be just as cold if not COLDER! Right now it looks like a high of -8 or -9!

But as I mentioned yesterday, it looks like a significant warm up after that.

NOTE: I'm off on holidays until next week. So I'd like to wish everyone a very safe and Happy New Year.
I'll talk to you in 2008!

Ryan

Near Normal... then COLD!... then Warmer?

First of all, I hope you all had a very safe and Merry Christmas.

Now on to some Weather Hype.
Man do I love to look at long range Weather Computer Models. Speculating on what could happen over the next 2 weeks is always fun.
However, one thing you always have to remember when looking at the weather over the next 15 days is that... IT COULD CHANGE... 15 times over. But it's still really fun to speculate.
Day to Day forecasting for the next 15 days is extremely difficult. Environment Canada's Senior Climatologist David Phillips once told me that the 5th day of a forecast is right only 65% of the time and then it goes down hill from there.
However overall trends, while still difficult, can be a little bit easier to predict.
So, this is what the models have been saying we are in for temperature wise for the next 2 weeks.

December 28th-January 1st.- At or slighty above normal. Temperatures over the next 5 days look like they will be hovering around the freezing mark... (not too far from Normal which is -3)

January 1st-January 3rd- COLD!- Temperatures will plummet... next Wednesday and Thursday the mercury would struggle to hit -10 for a high.

January 4th-January 10th- Warming Up- Temperatures will be rising... big time. If the models are right we would see 3 or 4 days of temperature highs near 5 degrees! That, believe it or not would be nothing compared to our warm start to 2007.
Last year January 1st-6th were all above 5 degrees. The 4th we hit 9... and the 5th and 6th we actually topped out at 10 degrees!

Speaking of Crazy Weather- David Phillips has released his annual list of the Top 10 Canadian Weather Stories for 2007. Southern Ontario makes a couple of appearences on this years list... including our Warm Winter and our Dry Summer which came in at number 5.

Top Ten Weather Stories for 2007
1.Vanishing Ice at the Top of the World
2.BC's Long Flood Threat
3.Pre-Winter Weather Mayhem from Coast to Coast
4.Tropical Summer on the Prairies
5.Oh So Dry in Southern Ontario
6.Big Bad Noel but No Juan
7.Great Lakes - How Low Will They Go?
8.A Winter That Wasn't - Almost!
9.Record Prairie Hailers
10.Canada's First F5 Tornado

You can the complete list out here.

Ryan

Happy Holidays

Hey Folks,

Thanks again to all of you who have been checking out this blog over the last few weeks... it's most appreciated.
Looks like this is definetly going to be a feature that I'm going to keep up and running into 2008.
I'm headed home to the farm for a couple days... and my parents only have dial up internet out there in the sticks... so I won't be able to update the blog until I'm back in on the 27th.
Just wanted to take this chance to wish you and yours a very Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas.
I'll talk to you in a few days.

Ryan.

P.S. Over the next couple of days we have a few weak disturbances clipping through the Great Lakes. One on Thursday Morning... and another bigger one on Friday night. Both look like they should be wet snow events... but it's going to be close. Maybe some rain closer to Lake Ontario... but for sure will be snow in Haliburton and Bancroft areas... Peterborough will be a close call.

FINALLY... Flash Freeze Warning Issued

HEY FINALLY!!! Environment Canada has issued a Flash Freeze Warning.

Actually as of 4:51 EC made all of Southern Ontario a Warning Zone for tonight.
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/son_e.html

Flash freeze warning.. includes..Peterborough City and County, City of Kawartha Lakes, Haliburton County, Bancroft and Bon Echo Park,Northern Durham Region and Stirling, Tweed, South Frontenac. (that's just in our viewing area)

The weekend thaw will quickly end from west to east this evening. Temperatures will fall well below the freezing mark across most of southern Ontario this evening and in easternmost sections including Ottawa and Cornwall near midnight. The flash freeze warning has been issued for areas that likely have considerble water lying around which will quickly turn to ice.

And a great comment by Sean after the last post...
You're right, I think we are going to be seeing some pretty good lake effect snows across the region tonight... especially since we are already seeing some snows bands develop with winds still out of the south west. Once they shift in from the West... they be pulling in even colder temperatures and throwing the snow straight east towards the Kawarthas. Again, as always the case with Lake Effect, the further West you are, the better your chance and the more you could see.

By the way winds at the airport are already gusting to 60 km/h... and we're just getting started!

Ryan

FLASH FREEZE UP!... but no Warning?

Hey Folks,
I really can't figure out why Environment Canada hasn't issued a Flash Freeze Warning.
They even mention in their special weather statement. "In addition to the strong winds temperatures will plummet to below the freezing mark this evening. Potentially dangerous driving conditions are possible especially where residual water on roads freeze."

And if you look up Flash Freeze Warning on their website it states...
Flash Freeze Warning-
When significant ice is expected to form rapidly on road surfaces over much of a region because of a combination of weather conditions. Such conditions typically include temperatures which are expected to fall quickly from above 0°C to well below freezing while precipitation is occurring. This warning is not issued for black ice formation.

So why no Warning for tonight? I think a Warning is a great way to get the message out to people who don't really pay close attention to the weather and could be caught off guard. There is a TON OF WATER on the roads... and it's all going to freeze when we drop to -9 tonight.
I don't get it.

Alright enough of my ranting...
This storm certainly hasn't disappointed in terms of rainfall... man did it rain today... it's still raining here in the City... but that will be coming to an end.
There's no mistaking where the cold front is when you look at the radar...

Now even though we don't have any Wind Warnings or Squall Warnings in our viewing area at the present time... the winds will certainly be a factor tonight. Speeds of 40 or 50 km/h with gusts of up to 70 or 80 are likely in most of the region. Some localized damage is possible with 80 km/h winds. There's also about a 60 percent chance that we will be seeing some flurries across the region tonight... but it won't be heavy like Southwestern Ontario.

Just checking some current conditions here just after 4pm...
Windsor was at 10 degrees at 8am this morning... now the temp has fallen to -3... it's feels like -13 with the wind chill... the Winds 58km/h gusting to 68... and it's snowing there.
That's what we are in for here tonight... A WINDY COLD FREEZE UP.

Right now... it's 6 degrees.

Be safe, I'm working tomorrow, so I will see you on Newswatch at 6!

Ryan.

Rain then a Rapid Freeze-Quick Saturday Update

Hey sorry for my lack of a post yesterday. I've been running around trying to finish my shopping... and I'm still not done!

Anyway, on to the Weather.

Our weekend system is right on schedule. Today we are going to see pretty cloudy conditions... maybe some light drizzle... but overall not a bad day to be running around getting things done.

You can see the bulk of the storm is just making it's way into Missouri.

So the fun really begins tonight. Rain will begin through the overnight hours... and continue most of the day tomorrow. Again 25mm is not out of the question... this system has a lot of moisture with it. Winds are going to be an issue, gusting to 60 km/h on Sunday... but it's after the cold front swings through Sunday evening that things get interesting.

Winds will shift in from the West and could gust to 80 km/h Sunday night and Monday. Those winds will be bringing in colder temperatures and we are going to see all those puddles freeze up... with the temperature dropping quickly in a matter of 3 or 4 hours. That could make for slick driving conditions and slick side walk conditions as well.

Those cooler winds coming over top of the Great Lakes are also really going to favor Lake Effect snows setting up... so let's hope we can get at least a nice dusting here in Central Ontario on Christmas Eve.

One thing I should mention, if you are travelling Sunday night or Monday to those typical snowbelt areas, out towards Lake Huron and Georgian Bay those Lake Effect snows could be heavy at times... so keep that in mind.

Alright, I'm going to finish my shopping, then it's off to a family Christmas in Barrie...

I won't have internet access again until Sunday afternoon... so watch for an update then.

Ryan

Weekend Storm Looks Later

MOST... of the computer models are now showing that the weekend storm will be arriving about 12 hours later than what I had told you yesterday.

The GFS (Global Forecasting System) model and my Future Look Model here at the station are both showing that we will start to see some light showers develop along the warm front, as it makes its way into the Province on Saturday morning... but then we will see a break during the afternoon.

The bulk of the rain won't be coming until late Saturday night and into Sunday morning and mid-day. The NAM (North American Model) is showing the system coming in even later... but right now I'm not to confident with that particular forecasting model.

None the less, the system will be arriving later... and because of that...the change over from rain to snow on Sunday will also be later. It's looking more like Sunday evening now... with flurries Sunday night and into Christmas Eve morning.

Christmas Day and Boxing Day are both looking fantastic now for travelling... with Sunshine and a few clouds. Christmas Day -5. Boxing Day a little warmer and -3.

And finally, that storm I was talking about yesterday... looks like for the most part... will be tracking to the East of us.

This system would be bringing flurries in Thursday (27th) evening... continuing overnight and even into Friday. If the storm holds this current track we would see 10-15 cm maximum.

However, we are still 7 days away and a lot can change.

So check back in.

I'll see you tonight at 6 and 11.

Ryan

Christmas Weekend Storm-Timeline

Hello and Happy Wednesday.

As you've heard me say on Newswatch for the past few nights, we do have a storm moving into Southern Ontario for weekend and it's going to be MESSY!

Again, a lot can change between now and the weekend... but here's the current timeline for the weekend system... AS OF NOW!

*Storm moves in with a breif period SNOW late Friday night/Early Saturday morning...

*That quickly changes to RAIN Saturday morning when you're waking up having breakfast. We could see a breif shot of freezing rain during that change over, so keep that in mind.

*RAIN at times heavy Saturday morning, afternoon and night and even early Sunday morning.

*Now, some of the computer models (just like the one below) are indicating that we could see a change back over to snow as early as 7:00am Sunday morning.

Image Courtesy of http://www.wunderground.com/

However, with that being said... I really do believe that it's going to take longer to get that change back over to snow. There's going to be a lot of warm air trapped at the surface and in the lower parts of the atmosphere before the winds will finally shift in from the Northwest... after the cold front passes through sometime Sunday morning. So if the cold front passes through at 7am...then it's going to take at least a couple of hours for those cooler temperatures to arrive and force that warmer air to rise up and out of the way. So I'm thinking it's a mid-day change over at the earliest.

The good news for you snow lovers is.... it looks like the flurries will linger Sunday night and right into Christmas Eve.

And the computers are trying to blow up ANOTHER storm (all snow) for the Northeastern part of the U.S. including us here in Southern Ontario for Boxing Day or the 27th.

I'll keep you posted.
Thanks again for stopping by.

Ryan

White Christmas in Question??-Tuesday Storm Update

According to Environment Canada... in any given year... Toronto has a 57% chance of seeing a white Christmas (at least two centimetres of snow on the ground). To the Northeast, the city of Ottawa has an 83% chance of seeing 2 cm or more on the ground on the 25th of December. There's no official tally for Peterborough, but you would have to think that we land somewhere in between the two. If you would like to live somewhere where you're almost guaranteed a white Christmas... Whitehorse, Yellowknife, Iqaluit, Thunder Bay, Timmins, Val d'Or, Quebec City, Goose Bay and of course Alert at the north pole, all come in at 100%.
With just 7 days to go before Christmas day and all the snow on the ground in the region, it's looking better all the time that we'll have some snow for the 25th...even if it is wet and heavy.

The computer models still haven't nailed down the track of this weekends storm but right now it looks like the centre of the storm would track to the West of the Great Lakes. That would bring the warm front into Southern Ontario on Saturday with RAIN. The rain would continue Saturday night and Sunday morning, before the temperature would drop through the day on Sunday, changing the rain to Snow. The good news is, Christmas Eve would be cooler and with a few a flurries and Christmas Day would be the coldest day in the long range forecast with a High of -7 and a Mix of Sun and Cloud.
Boxing day, a little warmer with a high of -2 and mainly cloudy. I'll keep you updated as we move closer.

How much snow is in your backyard?

Take your foot and dig all the way down until you find the grass.
How much snow do you think is in your backyard?
Let me know using the online poll on the right side of the screen.
I'm going to leave the poll open for a couple of days... and I'll show the final results on the air during Newswatch at 6 on Friday evening.

I'd like to get this poll completed before we get, what looks like, some RAIN on the weekend.
More on that later.

Ryan

Storm Snowfall Totals-Monday Dec 17th

I just wanted to say again, thanks to everyone who checked out the blog this weekend... I'm going to try and post something on here at least once a day, so always check back in.


Alright, here are some more snowfall totals from around the Province following the massive weekend storm.
These are unofficial totals from Environment Canada. Why unofficial? Well, with all the blowing and drifting snow during the storm, it's almost next to impossible to get a true measurement of how much snow fell. So with that said.


As of 10 AM Monday.
Windsor.............21 cm
London..............16 cm ice pellets and freezing rain as well
St. Cattherines......13 cm ice pellets and freezing rain as well
Grimsby Mtn.........26 cm ice pellets and freezing rain as well
Niagara Escarpment..32 cm
Hamilton............24 cm ice pellets and freezing rain as well
Waterdown...........37 cm
Toronto downtown....26 cm thunder/lightning/ice pellets as well
Toronto riverdale...30 cm
Pearson airport.....18 cm ice pellets as well
Mono Mills..........21 cm
Caledon.............24 cm
Markham.............23 cm ice pellets briefly mixed
Downsview...........20 cm ice pellets briefly mixed
Wiarton.............27 cm
Minden..............27 cm
Orillia.............25 cm
Peterborough......25cm (again, some of you may have seen as much as 30cm)
Coldwater...........20 cm
Trenton.............20 cm
Ottawa airport......37 cm
Gatineau............32 cm
Embrun/Russell......50 cm
Cornwall............50 cm
----------------------------------------


Alright, so that wraps up storm number 2 for this winter season. The first STORM of course pounded us on December 2nd-3rd. Not a bad start considering Winter doesn't officially start until this weekend. Saturday at 1:08am.


Speaking of this weekend... is that ANOTHER STORM in the long range forecast???

This is a picture from one of my long range computer models... the GFS (Global Forecasting System) model for Sunday December 23rd. The GFS has been pretty consistant with blowing up a storm just before... or right around Christmas time.
Right now the current track is still a little uncertain... BUT AS OF NOW...this storm would bring Southern Ontario a rain-snow Mix on Sunday... changing over to rain Sunday night... then back over to snow on Christmas Eve.
This is a big weekend for holiday travelling, so I'm going to keep you up to date as we move closer to the weekend and we get a better idea of what we are in store for.

I'll keep you up to date.
Thanks again for stopping by the blog.
Ryan

Weekend Storm Update-Sunday 5pm

2 foot drifts on the roof of my house!

20-25 cm has already fallen here in the city.... with 3-5 cm more.. by the time the system kicks out tonight.
The Heaviest snows have pushed out to the east and are headed for the Maritimes... be we are still seeing wrap around flurries and that will continue this evening.
The winds have already shifted from the Northeast to the North... and will finally shift in from the Northwest overnight tonight and into tomorrow. That will help drop temperatures tonight and keep us at -9 for a high tomorrow.
But again, those winds (tonight 30km/h, tomorrow 20-25km/h) will be causing all kinds of problems with no shortage of fresh snow to blow around.

Thanks to Stew Stick for sending me this picture of the white out conditions today...

AND HOW ABOUT THOSE BUSES??? That will be the big question tomorrow morning... will the buses be running? Obviously the winds will have everything to do with it. The snow will have ended by tommorow morning... but the winds will still make for a tricky commute to work.
I'm keeping my fingers crossed for all you students out there!

Looks like we could have even more snow on the way this week... BUT warmer temperatures with the mercury hovering around the freezing mark. I'll fill you in Monday night at 6.

By the way- If you have Weather pictures you'd like to share, send them to me at... weatherfront@chextv.com
I'll put some of them here on the blog and I'd love some for Newswatch tomorrow... so send them along!

Thanks again for checking out the blog this weekend folks, I'm glad we have some real weather lovers in the area... and that I wasn't just typing away to myself.

Have a great Sunday night.
I'll talk to ya tomorrow.

Ryan

Sunday 2:30pm- We must have 20cm already!-Video Update

I just came in from shoveling and shot this video to show you the scene here in the city...

Tough to tell with all the blowing and drifting but we must have 20cm here already... with 1 foot drifts everywhere.

Since I shot the video it's started to snow again...

Happy Shoveling Everyone!

I'll have another update this evening.

Ryan.

Snow rates of 3 cm per hour-Sunday Noon Update

Sorry for the late post... I've been shoveling!

At least the storm is right on schedule.

Outside my house in downtown Peterborough we must have over 10cm already with white out conditions from the blowing snow.
As you can see on the Environment Canada Radar...we are already getting Heavy banding snows... and there's a lot more where that came from.
The centre of the low is still over Ohio this morning... and will be pushing Northeast throughout the day. This is a shot from the National Weather Service in the U.S.

You can check out the full radar here.
All that precip to the Northwest of the Low right now (Michigan and and Northwest Ohio) will be swinging through our region this afternoon.
I'm not too far from Lansdowne St here at my house... so I took a walk out to see what's going on. Not surprising, many are still venturing out today... mostly 4x4's but it's crazy out there.

If you folks want to tell everyone what's going on in your backyard today... even though it's probably the same...SNOWING AND BLOWING... just post a comment on the wall.
Again, it's still going to be a crazy afternoon with snowing and blowing... and even when the snow starts to taper off overnight tonight... the winds will be gusting around 25-30km/h through Monday morning.
So it'll be nasty for awhile.
Stay safe and sit back and enjoy the storm.
Ryan

WINTER STORM WARNING- Saturday Night Update

-11pm-

Hello folks!

Here it comes... it really is like Christmas Eve for this Weatherman. I love a big storm.... provided we get the information out there and people stay off the roads and stay safe.

Let's get to the storm.

The low pressure centre is still developing tonight in Kentucky and will be moving northeast through the overnight hours.

The current storm track will put much of southern, central and eastern Ontario directly under the brunt of heavy snow. We may even here a few rumbles of thunder along with the heavy snow... which would be really cool. Heavy snow will begin this evening in southwestern Ontario and will push east to Ottawa in the overnight hours.

Looks like an area of Freezing rain is also possible... but it looks like it's going to stay to the south near Lake Erie.

Not much has changed in terms of snowfall amounts...

Looks like the bulk of the Kawarthas is in for at least 20cm.

Some areas further south and east in the viewing area could hit 30cm with some local amounts of 40 cm possible.

Alright this is my last snowfall map... after this it's time to sit back and watch.

One last point... I can't stress enough... significant blowing snow is going to be a HUGE problem. Strong northeast winds gusting to 60 km/h will be whipping up all the freshly fallen snow which will be causing whiteout conditions.

One more sleep.
I'll talk to you tomorrow.
Ryan
p.s. Thank you to all who have stopped by.

3pm Storm Update

Hey,
Thanks to everyone who's been stopping by to check out the blog... appreciate the great feedback... it's nice to know I'm not the only Weather Geek in the Kawarthas.
Alright, Quick update.
As of 3pm light snow being reported in Windsor, Sarnia, London, Hamilton and the City of Toronto... and we'll see a few flurries falling across Central Ontario this evening.
But the centre of the Low is still well back to the Southwest, just working into Missouri... this is where we are going to get our heavy snows.... overnight and into tomorrow morning.

Thanks again for stopping by.
Ryan.

Storm Track Shifts West-Saturday Morning Update

-10am-

Good morning, thanks for coming back to check in on this huge storm.
As I mentioned last night, with High Pressure holding it's ground to the North, our storm is going to be forced to track further to the West... bringing even more snow than originally forecast.
Timing wise, the storm still looks the same with Snow beginning late this evening and through the overnight... however the snow on Sunday will be even heavier and it will snow for a little longer as well.
Environment Canada is still holding it's ground with the Winter Storm Watch. In their actual forecast they're calling for 20-30 cm's... but in their storm report they also identify the uncertainty of the storm track and say even more snow is possible.
Another forecaster I like to check out is Meteorologist Brett Anderson with AccuWeather.com in the U.S. He has also updated his forecast for the Peterborough and the Kawartha's and is now saying 24-35 cm is possible Saturday night and Sunday. You folks east of the city, Norwood, Havelock, Campbellford, Marmora, Madoc, Brighton could see even more.

If you take my original snow map... I would take that 10-15 area to the West and put everyone in those areas in the 15-25 cm catagory. To the east 25-35 cm's with local amounts in some cases topping over 40 cm's.





With more than a foot possible in many places... plus then blowing and drifting snow... this is going to be a big time Major Winter Storm. One of those storms we'll talk about for a long while.

Ryan

Storm looks bigger already... Friday Night post

Word on the Weather street is that the current area of High Pressue (which is why it's cold and clear tonight) is already holding it's ground more than the computer models have forecasted. If that continues... that would force the system to track a little further to the West. So bigtime snowfall totals for the East would be shifting West.
The entire viewing area would be getting about 10 more snow than anyone is calling for tonight.
Let's sleep on it.
I'll post again tomorrow.
Ryan

Weekend Storm Update- Friday evening post

Alright Folks,

Thanks for stopping by and checking out the blog.

As I said tonight on the show, we have, what looks to be a HUGE winter storm headed to the CHEX Viewing area and most of Southern Ontario.

There's a Winter Storm Watch in effect more most the viewing area... the exception being Haliburton.

The system, as of now is still in the U.S. south, but is tracking Northeast and will be rolling into Southwestern Ontario by Saturday Evening.The snow is expected to start falling here in the Kawarthas around Midnight/1am Sunday morning. It looks like the heaviest snows will begin Sunday morning between 4am and 7am and will continue all day, not tapering off until Sunday evening. Not only will we be dealing with the heavy snow, but winds will be a big issue as well, with speeds around 30km/h, gusting to 50km/h. Blowing and drifting snow will most certainly be an issue right into Monday morning.

I would recommend just staying off the roads all together on Sunday. It’s going to be nasty.

Here’s how much snow could fall across the Kawarthas from Saturday Night- Sunday Night.

I’ll be updating these totals, if I need to, as we move through the weekend.

Ryan